Census data from the Federation of Royal Colleges of Physicians shows that between 2007 and 2017 across the UK the number of consultants increased by over 70%, from 9,092 to 15,727. However, 10 years ago, 80% of advertised consultant posts were successfully filled; by 2017 that had dropped to 55% . In 2017 in Scotland, over 34% of all consultant Assessment Panels were cancelled, rising to over 70% in some specialties, with the most common reason for cancellation being no applicants. The census also shows that thirty-three per cent of the current consultant workforce are predicted to reach their intended retirement age in the next decade. Medical student places need doubling now to fill this and the gap left generally by doctors leaving the profession.
The MAC should consider the case for adding all physician posts to the SOL for a defined period of time, which would provide a period of stability for the NHS during a potentially turbulent time for international and EU recruitment into the NHS. We also suggest that all medical specialties should be included on the SOL due to the introduction of Shape of Training which will need time to become systemically embedded. This could then be subject to a review moving forward.
Migration Advisory Committee
Thursday, 31 January, 2019